Best NBA prop picks January 14: Back Embiid against the Jazz

There are seven NBA games this Saturday leaving plenty of opportunities available on the prop market.

The pregame narrative: Joel Embiid has been feasting lately and is poised for another monstrous night. Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell should make it rain from deep against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Andrew Nembhard’s rebound line is a little too high.

Find all our best NBA props picks for January 14 below.

Odds as of 1:15 p.m. ET on 01/14/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet : Embiid over 33.5 points (-109)

There are few players we’d feel comfortable laying this many points with but Embiid is one of them.

Philadelphia’s centre is averaging exactly 33.5 points this year (second most in the NBA) and has kicked things into overdrive over the past six weeks. Embiid is averaging 35.5 PPG since December 1 and has gone over this mark in 11 of those 16 games.

He was held — using that term lightly — to 30 points in Thursday’s loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. But he only played 28 minutes in that contest and still turned in a remarkably efficient performance, shooting 10 of 17 from the field.

Now, Embiid gets to play the Utah Jazz, who are among the league’s worst defensive teams. Utah has the fifth-worst defensive efficiency (112.9) and allows the second-most points in the paint (55.3).

Embiid erupted for a career-high 59 points when these teams met in November. The big man shot 19 of 28 from the field and added 20 points from the charity stripe. Even if you take away the absurd amount of free throws he was given in that game, his 39 points easily clear this mark.

Key stat: Embiid has scored 34-plus points in five of his last six road games.

Quick picks

Mitchell over 3.5 threes (+114): This is a lofty line but Mitchell can let it rip from deep. He’s averaging just over this total (3.9 3PM) on the season and has put up seven-plus threes twice in January alone.

One of those games was a 71-point outburst against the Chicago Bulls.

We’re not expecting that type of performance from Mitchell but he should have ample opportunities to make it rain against a Timberwolves defence that allows the second-most 3-point field goals per game (13.7).

Nembhard under 4.5 rebounds (-130): Nembhard is having a solid rookie campaign for the Indiana Pacers but this line is asking too much of him. The Canadian is averaging just 3.1 boards per contest this year and has fallen under this mark in eight of his last nine games.

The Memphis Grizzlies aren’t the toughest team to rebound against — they give up the ninth-most (52.7) boards per game — but we’re still not convinced the 22-year-old will perform a whole two rebounds above his baseline.


Avery Perri writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @AveryPerri

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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