The Toronto Maple Leafs are riding a four-game losing streak, playing their first game home after a West Coast road trip, and have been profitable to fade as heavy NHL odds favorites over the last two seasons. In what I’m projecting to be another low-scoring Toronto game, is tonight vs. the Philadelphia Flyers going to be any different?
Find out my best bet for tonight’s Flyers vs. Maple Leafs game in my NHL betting picks and predictions.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs best odds
Flyers vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
This total opened at 7.0 but has since been bet down to 6.5. The Leafs have been one of the best Under teams in all of hockey with a 2-7 O/U mark on the season. The offense ranks in the bottom third in goals per game (2.70) and 12th in goals allowed per game at 3.00. Even their expected goal metrics have them roughly at just over 6.00 total goals per game.
This is not last season’s offense and Auston Matthews has just one 5-on-5 point through 10 games. It’s been a real struggle for Toronto to play with the lead and now it welcomes one of the worst offenses in hockey tonight in the Flyers.
Philadelphia was shutout 1-0 last night by the Rangers and ranks 27th in goals per game at 2.67 which is one spot below the Leafs. Their expected goals per game also rank 27th in the league. Philly is 5-2-2 but has scored more than three goals just twice over 10 contests.
John Tortorella’s club will play a tough game tonight even on the backend of a back-to-back. With the Flyers likely starting their backup, they could take even fewer risks offensively as teams tend to do so with their No. 2 in net.
They’re also missing some key offensive pieces in Cam Atkinson, Sean Couturier, and James van Riemsdyk.
Getting seven to eight goals in this game is very improbable. Neither team has played a single eight-goal game over 19 combined matches on the season.
The Flyers sport a Top-10 penalty kill and have allowed just two extra-strength goals over their last six games while their power play ranks 22nd in the league. I’m not expecting multiple power-play goals.
Ilya Samsonov sports a .912 SV% on the year and faces an offense that gets the third-fewest shots on net per game. Philadelphia’s Felix Sandstrom might not have a win over seven NHL starts but looked great in his last start vs. the Sharks and also owns a .912 SV% on the season.
With all the pressure on the Leafs, this is not going to be a loose game and Tortorella will also make sure that won’t happen. Even if this total moves to 6.5, I’d still hit the Under as short as -110.
My best bet: Under 6.5 (+105 at Sports Interaction)
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Flyers vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Leafs have been one of the least consistent teams of the 2022-23 season. They’re still playing uninspired hockey and have dropped four straight games, including all three in California.
The top line is frustrated and not producing, the bottom six is irrelevant, and the defense lacks talent using Justin Holl on the top pairing. Samsonov, who was the lone bright spot on the season, has dropped two straight and has saved just 55 of the last 62 shots he’s seen (.887 SV%). Betting to win $100 on each Toronto game would have bettors $834 in the hole through 10 games.
The Flyers are the exact opposite. They have been one of the most profitable teams so far this season as the 5-2-2 team has netted bettors over seven units through nine games. Now they come in as +255 underdogs on the back end of a back-to-back after a 1-0 OT loss in New York last night.
Everything says the Leafs should win this game as Philadelphia is traveling and likely starting a goalie in Felix Sandstrom who is winless over his seven NHL starts. He was decent in his last outing, stopping 22 of 24, but got zero support as the Flyers were shut out. We’ve seen this dance from the unmotivated Leafs before as they’re continuously playing down to their opponents.
With John Tortorella’s team unlikely to concede despite the tough schedule spot, if Toronto thinks it can just show up and take two points tonight, it’ll be looking at a five-game losing streak tomorrow.
Over the last two seasons, the Leafs have played nine games as a -350 favorite or shorter. In those nine contests, they are 4-5 straight up and have losses of -500, -395, -376, -400, and -375.
Toronto comes into tonight with a lot of media pressure thanks to an awful road trip. The offense sits 26th in goals per game (2.70) and 15th in shots on goal (31.4) and it hasn’t been unlucky either. Money Puck has the Buds with the 14th-best expected goals/60 at even strength, and Matthews has just one (!) even strength point on the season.
The Flyers are likely due for regression as they sit dead last in Corsi at 5-on-5 and have the worst goals against above expected, but Toronto has disappointed through 10 games and has continuously found ways to look bad in great spots — tonight is no different.
Tortorella is a big reason why the Flyers will be competitive tonight as he has this team skating hard and finishing plays which is something the Leafs don’t do with consistency.
With a very difficult schedule ahead of them (BOS, CA, and VEG), the Buds need to win tonight. With all the noise surrounding them, the lack of production on the top line, and the horrid defensive talent, the 76.5% win probability that the odds are implying are way too high for this Toronto team.
Shop around if you’re looking for the Flyers’ moneyline as they can be found as short as +240 and as long as +280. Sports Interaction has Philadelphia as a +268 dog and the Leafs at -326 which is the second-shortest number the home side has been all season.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
With my best bet being the Under 6.5 at +105, there isn’t a lot to add here.
These are two offenses that rank in the Bottom 10 in goals per game and both teams have been profitable to the Under on the season at a combined 6-12 O/U.
The total opened at 7.0 but got hit early in the morning and now sits at 6.5, but the Under is still plus money.
Neither team has seen an eight-goal game on the season and with how poorly the Toronto offense has been coupled with Tortorella fielding a competitive and hard-fighting Flyers squad this year, it won’t be easy for the Buds to run up the score.
The Flyers are dealing with some key injuries to skilled forwards and were a +225 dog with a total of 5.5 last night. Although the switch to backup Sandstrom from Carter Hart is significant, it isn’t worth 1.5 goals in my opinion. Sandstrom enters the game with an identical save percentage as Samsonov at .912.
The Flyers’ PK has also been a strong point for the team and gets to stifle a Toronto power play that has forgotten Matthews is there.
It’s been a great run on Leafs’ Unders and tonight, with so much on the line riding a four-game losing streak and a tough upcoming schedule, they should play a disciplined game that favors the Under as well.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Maple Leafs’ last five home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs Maple Leafs.
Flyers vs Maple Leafs game info
|Location:||Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON|
|Date:||Wednesday, November 2, 2022|
|Puck drop:||7:00 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Sportsnet One, NBCS-PHI|
Flyers vs Maple Leafs key injuries
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