One third of MLB clubs are in action tonight, and from that group we’ve built a +249 MLB parlay.
The pregame narrative: Corbin Burnes and Merrill Kelly should have the recipe for a pitchers’ duel in Milwaukee, and we’re taking a teased-up under. We’re also bullish on an alternative strikeouts line for Burnes, and we’re fading arguably the league’s worst pitcher in Kansas City’s Jordan Lyles.
Find all our MLB parlay picks for June 19 below.
MLB odds as of 12:00 p.m. ET on 06/19/23.
MLB parlay picks
Parlay: Tigers over 4.5 runs + ARI/MIL under 9.5 runs + Burnes over 5.5 Ks (+249)
Tigers over 4.5 runs (-122) : After dropping its first nine games of the month, Detroit has slowly turned things around thanks to a nice offensive uptick.
The Tigers have cleared this run total in eight of their past 10 games, posting a .507 slugging percentage in that span. They hit this over in two of three matchups against the Royals last month, and we’re loving their chances of doing so against tonight’s starter.
Lyles (0-11, 6.89 ERA) has the worst ERA among 65 qualified starters, along with the worst HR/9 (2.03).
In eight of his past nine starts, the Royals have allowed at least five runs.
Other parlay picks
Diamondbacks/Brewers under 9.5 runs (-230) : Tonight’s pitching matchup in Milwaukee looks like a great one, so we’re teasing up the run total and grabbing the under.
Kelly (8-3, 3.04 ERA) faces former Cy Young winner Burnes (5-4, 3.44) for the third time since last October. The two previous matchups went under this total, and we think tonight’s game will, too.
Burnes had a messy start to the season, but he’s held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his past 12 outings. Kelly has done the same in 12 of 14 starts overall.
Arizona has hit this under in four of its past five games, while Milwaukee has hit the under in seven of nine.
Burnes over 5.5 strikeouts (-245) : We’re sticking with this Diamondbacks/Brewers matchup to wrap up our parlay, banking on Burnes to clear a very manageable strikeout total.
In fairness, the D’Backs have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors (19.9%, third lowest in MLB). But that hasn’t been an issue for Burnes.
The right-hander has a 37.3% K-rate in 75 plate appearances against the current Arizona lineup. He struck out eight D’Backs when he last faced them in April, and he’s cleared this 5.5-strikeout total in six of his past seven starts.
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