We’ve got an MLB prop bet on Shohei Ohtani in the mid-afternoon window, as well as two picks involving Max Scherzer for tonight.
The pregame narrative: Ohtani has been the best hitter in baseball for weeks, yet his bases prop is still popping up at a reasonable price — especially when you consider the individual pitcher matchup. As for Scherzer, he should be in line to rack up strikeouts and keep two particular Brewers hitters quiet.
Check out our picks and the betting odds in our best MLB prop bets for June 29.
MLB odds as of 1:39 p.m. ET 06/29/2023.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet : Scherzer 8+ Ks (-110)
Is Scherzer back? It sure seems like it.
Even with a pair of rough outings mixed in, the three-time Cy Young winner has a 3.19 ERA over his past eight starts. Scherzer also has a 10.5 K/9, which is far closer to what we’re used to seeing from him.
In each of the past 11 seasons, Scherzer has posted a K/9 of 10.0 or better. He’s a bit below that mark in 2023, but again, the recent results are trending up. He has eight or more Ks in five of his past six starts, which gives us faith that he’s figured something out.
Scherzer’s 68th-percentile K-rate (26.2%) isn’t elite, but his 89th-percentile walk rate (5.5%) is. The fewer batters he loses to free passes, the more opportunities he’ll have to hit this number.
The concerning element here is that Scherzer only garnered two strikeouts when he faced the Brewers back in April, but this still profiles as a plus matchup.
Milwaukee has the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB (25.8%), and Scherzer’s K-rate against the current lineup (27.5%) is even better.
Key stat: Milwaukee is averaging 10.1 Ks per game this month.
Adames, Winker under 1.5 bases each (+100): Sticking with the Mets/Brewers matchup, we think Scherzer will continue his dominance over this pair of Milwaukee hitters.
Willy Adames is 1-for-10 with six strikeouts against Scherzer, and he’s totalled multiple bases in just two of his past 14 games.
Jesse Winker, meanwhile, is 1-for-12 against Scherzer (with five strikeouts) and has a .154/.247/.215 slash line in his past 24 games.
Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-122): We had Ohtani’s bases prop as our best bet yesterday, and he cleared it in the first inning with a one-out triple.
That marked Ohtani’s 19th multi-base performance in his past 23 games. His OPS in that span (1.505) is out of this world. With that in mind, paying a little extra juice doesn’t feel so bad.
Ohtani also happens to have a plus matchup tonight. In his career against White Sox starter Lance Lynn, the two-way superstar is 10-for-21 with three home runs.
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