NBA prop picks January 23: Fade Sabonis against tough Memphis defence

The NBA is rolling out a seven-game slate for the third consecutive day on Monday, creating plenty of prop-betting opportunities.

The pregame narrative: Domantas Sabonis could struggle to put up a big point total against a tough defence, but the same can’t be said for D’Angelo Russell. Also, Paolo Banchero draws an opponent he’s beaten up on this season.

Find all our best NBA props picks for January 23 below.

Odds as of 10:02 a.m. ET on 01/23/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet : Sabonis under 19.5 points (-107)

It’s impossible to prevent Sabonis from making an impact on any game he participates in, but holding him under 20 points is no Herculean feat.

The big man has gone under this line in 55.8% of his games this season, including his last four.

He could have a tough day at the office on Monday against a Memphis Grizzlies team with an elite defence. Memphis ranks seventh in the NBA in scoring defence and allows the fourth-fewest points in the paint — making life difficult for guys who want to attack the rim like Sabonis.

We’ve already seen the veteran struggle mightily against the Grizzlies this year. He’s gone under this line in all three of his games against them, accumulating 38 total points in those contests.

Those are shockingly bad numbers in the context of Sabonis’ 2022-23 production. The nine points he produced against Memphis on November 22 are tied for his lowest scoring output of the season. His 11 points on October 27 are tied for his third-worst total.

Memphis is good at shutting down just about anyone, but they seem to have the recipe for bottling up Sabonis. We expect the Grizzlies to keep him in check once again on Monday.

Key stat: Sabonis is averaging 12.7 points per game against Memphis this season.

Quick picks

Russell over 18.5 points (-113): This line strikes us a little low considering Russell has averaged 19.8 points per game since Karl-Anthony Towns went down with a calf injury in late November.

The veteran has been rolling recently as well, clearing this line in six of his last nine games. He’ll also be helped by facing a Rockets defence that allows the most points in the NBA to point guards per FantasyPros — and the seventh-most points overall.

Banchero over 18.5 points (+102): Although Banchero has cooled off a little bit lately, these odds are too enticing to ignore.

The Rookie of the Year frontrunner has scored 19 or more points in 69.2% of his games this season, and he’s shown the ability to fill the bucket against the Boston Celtics. While the Celtics’ defence is solid, Banchero has averaged 24.7 points in three games against Boston this season, going over 20 points on each occasion.


Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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