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NBA prop picks January 7: Sabonis should continue dominance against the Lakers

Saturday’s NBA slate features just five matchups, but there are still plenty of enticing prop markets to tap into.

The pregame narrative: Domantas Sabonis is showing up in the box score with impressive volume these days, and we don’t expect that to stop against the Los Angeles Lakers. We’re also looking to tail a red-hot Lauri Markkanen, as well as Jayson Tatum in the wake of a recent 10-assist evening.

Find all our best NBA props picks for January 7 below.

Odds as of 11:39 a.m. ET on 01/07/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet : Sabonis over 41.5 P+R+A (-121)

Sabonis is playing out of his mind right now, and he waltzes into an excellent matchup against the Lakers.

L.A. really hasn’t been the same since Anthony Davis went down. He’s missed the team’s past 11 games, and the defensive results are glaring:

Time frame Defensive rating Points allowed/game
Lakers’ first 28 games 111.5 116.3
Lakers’ last 11 games 117.3 120.0

The Davis-less era of the Lakers coincides almost perfectly with Sabonis’ mean streak. The Kings centre is on quite a 10-game run right now, having cleared this PRA line in nine games.

In that span, Sabonis has averaged 22.3 points, 15.5 rebounds and 7.6 assists per night while shouldering a 38-minute workload.

Sacramento should continue to ride the big man in this matchup, and bettors should absolutely look to capitalize.

Key stat: The Lakers have allowed 43.3 PRA to opposing centres this year, per FantasyPros, including top-five rates of both rebounds (16.1) and assists (4.3).

Quick picks

Markkanen over 28.5 points (-107): Markkanen does happen to be coming off an all-time performance (49 points), but the reasons to tail him go deeper than that.

The 7-foot Finn is averaging 33.8 points in his past six games, clearing this line in five of those (and falling a half-point shy in the other match). He also burned the Bulls for 32 points in their prior meeting this season.

Tatum over 4.5 assists (+100): Though Tatum is (and should be) a shoot-first guy, we like this line against a permeable Spurs defence.

San Antonio has allowed the second-most assists to opposing power forwards (4.3), and Tatum averages better than four assists per night. Last time out, the MVP hopeful matched a season-high with 10 assists, and we’re hoping he feeds off that performance on Saturday.

JH

Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.




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