TCU vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks – January 11


The (#17) TCU Horned Frogs (13-2) will face off with the (#10) Texas Longhorns (13-2) in Austin on Thursday. TCU had their 11-game winning streak snapped last Saturday at the hands of the Iowa State Cyclones 69-67.

Iowa State’s Gabe Kalscheur hit the game-winning three-pointer with two seconds remaining, sinking the Horned Frogs, who turned it over the possession before. Star guard Mike Miles finished with 18 points, while senior Damion Baugh had 17.

TCU vs. Texas

Betting Odds

Team Spread Total Money Line
TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 o142.5 +235
Texas Longhorns -6.5 u142.5 -280

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Texas won their first game since Chris Beard’s firing, beating Oklahoma State 56-56. They held Okie State to 30% from the floor while causing a game-high 16 turnovers. All-Big 12 honoree Marcus Carr dropped 12 points, while former Stanford star Timmy Allen added 11. Assistant coach Rodney Terry will take over for the fired Beard for the remainder of the season.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The TCU Horned Frogs own a 1.16 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 12th in the nation. The Longhorns have the fifth-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.89. TCU do well in all key stats, but spacing and shot-making are where they are in the 20th percentile or worse. Conversely, the Longhorns are in the 86th percentile in defensive shot-making and the 41st in defensive spacing.

The Horned Frogs own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, and transition shot types. They are in the top 10 in all those shot types except for cuts with a 1.18 SQ PPP (91st in the country). On the other hand, the Longhorns are in the top 50 in defending all those shot types.

The Texas Longhorns have a 1.10 AdjOFF SQ, the 48th-best mark in the country. TCU have posted a 0.93 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 32nd in the country. The Longhorns are in the top 70 in shot selection and rim and three SQ PPP. However, the Horned Frogs are in the 24th percentile in defensive shot selection and 60th in defensive rim and three SQ PPP.

Texas are in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and transition. TCU is 26th in defensive cut but 233rd in off-screen defense. They are in the middle of the pack defending all other shot types.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction

Texas returned to their basketball brand last Saturday with a defensive showing against Oklahoma State. Before that, they struggled to lock down teams like they did when Chris Beard patrolled the sidelines. Meanwhile, TCU have been tough on opposing offenses all season, making the under in the contest ooze with value. So grab the under and hope the Longhorns are back for real.

Prediction: Under 142.5 (-110)

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Edited by Sankalp Srivastava

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