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The 2025 NCAA Tournament has built up to what many consider the strongest Final Four since the tournament expanded in 1985. While the early rounds lacked Cinderella stories and major upsets, this year’s Final Four is stacked with elite teams, each boasting historically high KenPom ratings. It’s only the second time in tournament history that all four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four, setting the stage for what could be an all-time great championship weekend.
With four of the top 10 highest-rated teams in KenPom.com history (dating back to 1996-97), the level of competition is unparalleled. Here are the expert picks for Saturday’s Final Four matchups, with odds provided by BetMGM.
Auburn (+2.5) over Florida
6:09 p.m. ET | Saturday
Auburn enters the Final Four with one of the best statistical profiles in modern history, yet it holds the longest odds to win the tournament at +525. Based on KenPom ratings, the Tigers would have been the favorite in 21 of the last 27 tournaments. However, concerns over star forward Johni Broome’s health have slightly dampened their outlook.
Broome suffered an elbow injury during Auburn’s Elite Eight victory but managed to return to the game. While he missed early-week practices, there is optimism that he will play at full strength. If Broome is close to 100%, Auburn has the talent to win it all.
Florida, on the other hand, has survived two close calls against UConn and Texas Tech, relying on late-game heroics. The Gators’ defensive struggles in the paint against Texas Tech will be a key factor, as Auburn has the interior presence to exploit those weaknesses. Despite Florida’s 90-81 win at Auburn in February, the Tigers’ dominance in this tournament—winning their first three games by double digits—makes them a strong pick with the points.
Houston (+4.5) over Duke
8:49 p.m. ET | Saturday
Duke has steamrolled its way through the tournament, drawing comparisons to legendary teams like 1991 UNLV, 1999 Duke, 2015 Kentucky, and 2021 Gonzaga—all of whom entered the Final Four looking unstoppable. However, history shows that no team is guaranteed to win it all, especially in a Final Four this competitive.
Saturday’s late game features a classic battle of strengths: Duke’s No. 1-rated offense in KenPom history versus Houston’s No. 1-ranked defense this season. Houston’s defensive dominance was on full display in the Elite Eight, where it held a potent Tennessee offense to just 15 points in the first half.
While Duke’s offense has been historic, Houston is not a one-dimensional team. The Cougars rank No. 10 in offensive efficiency, making them well-rounded enough to challenge Duke on both ends of the court. The Blue Devils deserve to be favored, but Houston has the defensive toughness and offensive balance to keep this game close—and possibly pull off the upset.
March Madness Betting & Final Four Legacy
While the early rounds of this tournament lacked chaos, the 2025 Final Four has the potential to be an all-time great showcase of elite college basketball. Whether you’re betting the spread, moneyline, or futures, this weekend promises some of the most compelling matchups in recent history.
Stay tuned for more March Madness coverage and expert insights as we head into the national championship game!